Limp monsoon that left swathes of India bone dry | Number Theory

India's erratic monsoon season is causing havoc for harvests, raising concerns about a potential slowdown in spending. For Ajay Kumar Chutani, whose family has owned a sari shop in the north Indian market town of Karnal since the 1970s, the months following the monsoon are crucial. This year, however, erratic rains and the weakest rainfall since 2015 have left Chutani wary of his annual profit, which is determined by the next three months.

Farmers across India's northern grain belt are bringing their harvest to market, with rice yields down and costs rising. Farmers claim more chemicals and fertilisers are needed to offset production losses. The monsoon is essential for India, delivering about 75% of the country's annual rainfall and determining livelihoods in a country where just half of farmland is irrigated.

Weak harvests not only hurt hundreds of millions of rural residents but also have global implications, as India is a major producer and consumer of wheat, rice, and sugar. The India Meteorological Department reported that cumulative precipitation during the June to September monsoon period was 12.6% below the long-term average, with the current El Nino weather phenomenon expected to be one of the most powerful on record.

Weak harvests translate into lower farm incomes, which could lead to slower rural consumption, according to Madhavi Arora, an economist with Emkay Global Financial Services. Reservoir storage in major wheat-producing states is at three-year lows, adding to the uncertainty caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon.