Iran readies harder retaliation if attacked as diplomacy faces long odds

DUBAI: Iran is preparing for a more aggressive response to any future attacks by the United States, according to sources, as diplomatic efforts seem unlikely to yield success. This preparation stems from Iran's leadership's belief that any renewed US campaign must face a stronger retaliation, even as Tehran aims to avoid escalation through dialogue.

Senior commanders are now reviewing plans to expand potential targets beyond US-linked assets to nations supporting US military operations and possibly locations beyond the Middle East, according to three Iranian officials and an insider with knowledge of these discussions. Since President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from New York, commanders and officials have been focused on the scope and timing of a potential response if Washington strikes again.

No final decision has been made, but the intensity of planning has increased as neither party shows signs of compromise. The deliberations follow seven months of intermittent conflict that began with US-Israeli attacks on February 28. Although a ceasefire was established on April 8, sporadic hostilities have continued. Iran's analysts suggest that Tehran is uncertain about the trajectory of US President Donald Trump's response, ranging from major campaigns to more limited strikes.

Iran also weighs the political risks for Trump, with polls indicating the war has been unpopular among Americans and higher fuel prices remaining a concern before the midterm elections. Tehran has instructed allied groups in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq to be prepared for a coordinated response, stretching from the Strait of Hormuz to US interests in the region and beyond.

While Iran's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment, its diplomats are still open to negotiations. Tehran has submitted a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators, seeking to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, halt hostilities, release $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds, and waive oil sanctions. However, US President Trump has reportedly rejected the proposal, while a US response delivered to Tehran through Qatar is under review.

Iranian sources indicate that Washington wants Iran's nuclear program included in discussions, but Iran insists that nuclear talks can only commence after Iran meets its seven conditions, not before. US and Iran are reportedly discussing a phased deal to reopen the Hormuz and end the US blockade, but prospects for diplomatic success remain limited, according to experts.