How the new prison release scheme will work - and number of inmates to be freed

In October, approximately 700 eligible inmates will be released from prisons in England and Wales as part of the government's early prison release plan, while a total of 2,550 will be freed by the end of the year. Prisons across the two nations are nearly at capacity, with around 87,499 inmates occupying 120 jails and only about 1,500 beds currently available.

This has led to the scheme's development as a solution to the crisis inherited by the Labour government upon taking office in July 2024. The Labour government had struggled with prisons filling up faster than the rate of prisoner releases, a trend that has persisted for three decades. The previous government had also failed to construct the promised prisons, leaving no spare cells by the summer of 2024.

The new early release scheme, passed by Parliament, applies to roughly 70,000 offenders. Prisoners serving sentences of up to 19 months will be eligible for release at the one-third point, while those serving up to three years and two months will be eligible from November. Serious offenders with terms over 12 years will become eligible by June. This change affects 18,000 inmates, who will serve part of their sentence in the community instead of continuing to serve their full sentence behind bars.

However, 18,000 inmates are excluded from the scheme, including those convicted of murder, manslaughter, sexual or grooming offenses, or driving offenses leading to death. Their earliest release dates remain unchanged. Around 4,500 prisoners are expected to be released by next summer, with about 700 leaving jail on October 1st, which would amount to approximately six per prison. Although the scheme represents an 8% increase in releases compared to a typical monthly release rate of around 4,500.

Upon release, prisoners become eligible for a community licence, which means they could be recalled if they break their conditions, ranging from failing to attend a probation appointment to more serious breaches such as contacting a victim or committing a crime. The new rules, dubbed Earned Progression, aim to encourage prisoners to reform through enhanced monitoring and intensive supervision, which includes wearing electronic tags and adhering to other conditions. Probation officers will face increased responsibility in monitoring offenders across the country.

The government acknowledges the potential challenges in implementing the scheme, with independent inspector Martin Jones expressing concerns about the system's ability to cope. A report published before the start of the October releases warned that nearly half of offenders were not tagged promptly, despite electronic monitoring being crucial to the scheme's success.

The government claims the probation service has recruited 1,300 more staff and received new AI tools to help oversee offenders. However, recalling a released prisoner is possible if their probation officer or the Parole Board believes they have violated their licence conditions, pose an increased risk, or pose a danger to the public.

In the year ending March 2026, there were 51,419 licence recalls, a 28% increase from the previous year, with around 2,900 recalls due to committing another offense.