Government Submits 3-Year Budget to State Duma as 2026 Deficit Set to Reach $88Bln
A record 34.9% of total budget spending is set to remain classified in 2027.
On Wednesday, Russia's government presented its three-year draft federal budget for 2027-2029 to the State Duma, projecting a record 2026 deficit of 7.345 trillion rubles, or $88 billion. This deficit is nearly double previous projections and represents 3.2% of the country's GDP, up from the prior target of 1.6%. For the following three years, budget deficits are expected to total nearly 16 trillion rubles ($192 billion).
Analysts view a deficit of up to 4-5% of GDP as manageable. The government asserts the draft budget is balanced and crucial for macroeconomic stability and curbing inflation. Nominal GDP is forecast to grow by 1.4% in 2027, reaching 248.3 trillion rubles ($2.98 trillion), and by 2.4% in 2029, at 281.7 trillion rubles ($3.38 trillion).
Inflation is targeted at 4%, with an oil price baseline of $50 per barrel. Russia's fiscal situation has worsened since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine four and a half years ago, necessitating increased borrowing and tax hikes to cover rising military spending. Classified budget figures indicate 2.3 trillion rubles ($28 billion) are publicly disclosed, while the rest remain "top secret."
The State Duma will begin reviewing the draft budget bill on October 29. Russia's prosecutor general has labeled The Moscow Times as an undesirable organization, criminalizing its work and exposing journalists to potential prosecution amid accusations of discrediting the Kremlin's decisions.
Written by urgent.news from The Moscow Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
