Forex Today: US Dollar shows resilience ahead of next batch of data
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, October 1:
On Thursday, October 1, the US Dollar (USD) maintained its position against competing currencies in the European morning. Economic reports for the week included weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and the Institute for Supply Management's September Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Several European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) officials gave speeches throughout the day. The USD was the strongest against the Swiss Franc this week.
Earlier, ADP reported a rise in private sector employment by 90K in September, exceeding expectations. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the second-quarter GDP growth to 2.2% from 1.5%, and announced that core PCE Price Index grew by 3% in August, slightly below the expected 3.3%. The USD index dropped initially due to mixed data releases but recovered later in the American session, closing marginally higher.
Forex analysts at Societe Generale indicated that August inflation data offered limited comfort to the Fed, as core PCE undershot expectations. However, they noted that inflation revisions were modestly favorable, but growth revisions were more significant. The economy entered the second half of 2026 with stronger momentum than previously assumed, while underlying inflation remained too high for the Fed to provide clear comfort.
A pause in October was possible, but a hike remained on the table pending September CPI and PPI data.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari delivered a hawkish message during an FXS speech, expressing concern that inflation near 3% remained "too high" despite recent data. Emphasizing a resilient economy, strong consumer spending, and broad job availability, Kashkari also hinted at the possibility of a higher neutral rate. The central bank's bias leaned toward further tightening if the economy and inflation did not cool significantly.
The Bank of Japan highlighted its intention to keep raising interest rates in line with economic and price developments. Gold prices rebounded slightly to $4,200 in the European morning.
Written by urgent.news from FXStreet's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
