Flávio will be president – at least according to Kalshi and Polymarket
In the final stretch of the most thrilling election in recent years, with the numbers obscenely close between the two main candidates, Polymarket and Kalshi are giving the victory to Flávio Bolsonaro. And historical data show that the hit rate of predictive market companies at this stage of the electoral race tends to be very high.
Predictive market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are giving Flávio Bolsonaro the lead in the election, with 62% and 61% chances of winning, respectively. Lula has 38% and 39% probability of winning, according to the platforms. Historical data shows that predictive markets tend to be highly accurate at this stage of an election, with Polymarket having a success rate of 87% in 15 past elections. A study by XP found that Polymarket's accuracy increases as the election approaches, reaching 73% 30 days before the vote.
Written by urgent.news from Brazil Journal's report — not a translation of it. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
