Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict could intersect with increased Houthi escalation in Yemen, experts fear
Tigrayan forces launched a major offensive last week, seizing airports and advancing into neighboring areas before Ethiopian federal forces and allied militias began counterattacks.
Rapidly escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea may intertwine with increasing Houthi activity in Yemen, according to experts. The renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has reignited fears of a repetition of the 2022 Pretoria agreement that ended the previous Tigray war. Ethiopian forces have already captured key airports and advanced into neighboring regions, prompting counterattacks by government troops. The conflict has even reached the strategic town of Alamata, south of Mekelle.
Ethiopia's army chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of providing support to forces opposing the federal government. However, all three countries deny involvement, with Sudan blaming Ethiopia for backing anti-Khartoum factions. In Yemen, the Houthi movement has dramatically expanded its control along the western coast, taking Mokha and strategic islands near Bab el-Mandeb in September. This has heightened concerns over the already crucial Red Sea passage.
Dr. Gashaw Ayferam Endaylalu, a senior researcher at the Horn of Africa, warns that these tensions should not be considered a passing spike in relations. He believes the current escalation involves a broader effort to create an anti-Ethiopia alliance, with Eritrea playing a key role. Endaylalu asserts that Asmara's push for renewed hostilities and logistical support are contributing to the situation.
The conflict's origins stretch back to the 1991-2018 Ethiopia-Eritrea war, which ended without resolution. While Ethiopia views sea access as an economic necessity, Endaylalu argues that the port question should not be seen as the primary cause of the current confrontation. The deeper disagreement lies in the political architecture of the Horn of Africa, with Ethiopia seeking interdependence and shared economic opportunities, while Eritrea favors an inward-looking and divided Ethiopia.
Security analyst Mowlid Ali warns that the vulnerability of the Horn of Africa is exacerbated by competing regional and international actors vying for ports, military access, and influence. The region's instability is further compounded by ongoing conflicts in Sudan and Yemen, leading some to fear a renewed Ethiopian conflict could unfold alongside those crises.
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