Carney expected to announce decision on pipeline’s national interest designation

Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to reveal on Thursday whether an oil pipeline to the West Coast will be deemed a national interest project under the Building Canada Act. Carney will make the announcement alongside Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in Fort McMurray, Alberta. This would be the inaugural project to receive such designation since the passage of Bill C-5 over a year ago.

The act empowers Ottawa to assign special conditions to projects, enabling them to proceed through a dozen federal laws. The federal government, in a November 2025 energy pact with Alberta, committed to declaring the pipeline as a project of national interest. In May, Carney and Smith signed an implementation agreement for the deal, setting Oct.

1 as the deadline for a decision on the designation. That agreement also stipulated that the pipeline’s construction and the Pathways carbon capture project are interdependent. Ottawa had previously posted in the Canada Gazette in August that it intended to proceed with the national interest designation, stating that Indigenous consultation was underway.

Energy Minister Tim Hodgson anticipates the Major Projects Office to complete its work on schedule, ensuring the project receives the designation. While Carney had initially stated that taxpayers wouldn't cover the pipeline's cost, no private sector proponent has yet committed to financing it entirely, with Pembina Pipeline Corp. being the sole private sector participant.

Ottawa and Alberta will share the remaining cost through Trans Mountain Corp. and the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission. Industry experts suggest that there is a "chicken and egg" scenario between the construction of the pipeline and the expansion of oilsands production to fill it. Producers have been hesitant to make large investments due to a pipeline infrastructure shortage.

However, smaller scale, shorter-term pipeline expansion projects to the U.S. and West Coast are already in development. Ottawa's efforts to streamline the regulatory process, roll back environmental policies, and provide tax incentives for new investments have been well-received by the industry. While mega mines from a decade ago are unlikely, industry experts believe that 150,000 to 200,000-barrel-a-day in situ expansion is a real possibility.

The announcement on Thursday marks the second significant energy decision this week, following the LNG Canada natural gas export facility expansion in Kitimat, B.C.