BofA Securities names top mining stocks as copper outlook brightens

Bank of America Securities has updated its mining sector rankings, boosting several major producers as the investment bank lifted its long-term copper price forecast by 20% to $12,000 per ton for 2026. The upgrade comes after more than a year of policy surprises, with volatility risks persisting from the Middle East conflict. Copper continues to outperform expectations primarily due to ongoing supply constraints, although higher interest rates and a stronger dollar pose challenges for gold prices.

BofA Securities raised BHP Group to Buy with a price target of A$68, making it the top pick among large-cap mining stocks. BHP's copper growth options are a key attraction, and analysts are also watching for a potential Australian listing. Alcoa received a Buy rating with a price target of GBp650, highlighting the company's copper growth opportunities.

For the aluminum producer, BofA Securities sees interesting risk-reward characteristics in the current market. The bank maintains a Buy rating with a price target of GBp4700 for the blue-chip copper producer, noting its approximately 30% volume growth potential. Analysts point to decarbonization efforts and artificial intelligence as secular positive drivers for metal demand, but warn of potential drawdowns of 10% to 20%, citing market corrections during China's super cycle from 2002 to 2008.