Asia rice: Indian rice export prices rise to over one-year high on firm demand, production concerns

Indian rice export prices reached an over one-year high this week, fueled by strong demand and worries over production due to flooding in rice-growing regions after a prolonged dry spell. The 5% broken parboiled variety was quoted at $378-$384 per ton, marking its highest level since July 2025, a significant increase from last week's $375-$381. Similarly, the 5% broken white rice was priced between $377 and $382 per ton.

A trader based in Mumbai noted that worsening crop conditions are contributing to the rising paddy prices, leading exporters to hike rice prices. India's rice production is anticipated to decline this year for the first time in a decade and the most in nearly 20 years, as below-normal rainfall during the crop's maturation threatens to reduce yields, according to industry officials.

In contrast, Thailand's 5% broken rice maintained its price at $460 per ton, unchanged from the previous week. Traders suggest that demand remains steady, with regular customers continuing to purchase. There is also a potential increase in purchases from the Philippines, which may face more storms.

On the supply side, the Northeastern region is currently in the harvest season, and October-November could see some crop damage due to rain. Meanwhile, Vietnam's 5% broken rice was offered at $420-$430 per metric ton, down from $430 a week ago. Despite low domestic supplies, external demand remains weak, according to a trader from Ho Chi Minh City.

The state media cited a forecast from the agriculture ministry, predicting that rice exports in the first nine months of the year could fall by 6.1% year-on-year to 6.4 million tons. The export value for this period is expected to decline by 10.9% to $3.1 billion. In Bangladesh, rice prices have remained high and may rise further due to an increase in oil prices, which escalates expenses for irrigation, farm machinery, and transportation. This could put additional pressure on consumers already facing high inflation levels.