물가 둔화 신호에도 고금리 ‘뉴노멀’…“증시 AI 쏠림 심화 전망”

The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates despite a significant drop in August’s consumer price inflation rate in the United States has led to a surge in long-term bond yields. This unexpected shift has prompted analysts to consider the new normal of higher interest rates, which will have varying impacts across different industries.

According to the latest data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield reached an all-time high of 5.29% and the 30-year bond yield hit 5.64% at the end of last month. The trend of rising long-term interest rates continued after August 22nd, even as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate for August came in below market expectations at 3.4%, causing the Federal Reserve’s projected interest rate hike for the following month to be postponed.

Analysts noted that while a slowdown in inflation is expected, the concern over future inflation remains, as other factors such as the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycles, rising oil prices, and longer-term premium on bonds are not expected to change significantly, keeping the "high-interest, long-term" scenario as the dominant market narrative.

Despite the higher interest rates, the stock market remains focused on the resilience of the main index. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by 4.3% on the day, while the Nasdaq Composite, which is heavily influenced by technology stocks, rose by 1.9%, and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange's semiconductor index jumped by 9.5%, highlighting the varying effects across industries.

SK Escalade Securities Research cautioned that higher interest rates may accelerate economic slowdowns in other sectors, intensifying the AI investment trend. This view was echoed by Jeongwan Yu of Yuanta Securities, who pointed out that the market will be more selective in providing support to companies that can withstand higher interest rates and maintain investment momentum.

On this day, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) rose by 1.95% due to the strong performance of major semiconductor companies, including Samsung Electronics (+2.79%) and ESCO Group (+3.21%).