Why are oil futures still so high if Middle East exports have recovered?

Goldman Sachs analysts have puzzled over the stubbornly high prices of oil futures despite a surge in Persian Gulf exports. The bank found that Gulf crude shipments have rebounded to last year's levels, with dark exports accounting for nearly 90% of the recovery. Despite an attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline and a Houthi blockade, exports rebounded to 23.3 million barrels per day last week, double the September average.

The bank anticipates Brent crude to ease to $85 per barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027, attributing the elevated prices to a large risk premium. This premium is driven by potential supply disruptions and low global stocks, prompting an urgent need to rebuild reserves quickly.