Warnings international forum all at sea on security

An international organisation spanning Southeast Asia, known as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), is struggling to respond to potential crises that could impact the region. The Lowy Institute recently revealed that ASEAN lacks the necessary capabilities to handle the increasingly likely security issues, such as war over Taiwan, a blockade of the Strait of Malacca, tension in the South China Sea, and submarine cable sabotage.

Hunter Marston, the author of the report, attributed this to the "many cooks in the kitchen," indicating the complexity of coordinating among the members' competing national interests. ASEAN is described as a "ring with a hole in the centre," lacking strategic trust and coordination. The report highlights that the US and China's increased military presence around the Strait of Malacca, a crucial shipping choke-point, has raised concerns about its potential closure, which would disrupt oil trade to Singapore, Australia's primary source of refined fuel.

The Strait of Malacca carries an estimated 45% of global seaborne oil trade, making its closure a significant concern. ASEAN's members, including Singapore, Malaysia, and Brunei, have signed crucial fuel and fertiliser provision agreements with Australia amidst rising tensions. However, the AUKUS agreement between Australia and other nations has raised alarm among some ASEAN members, particularly Indonesia, who fear its implications.

Despite Australia's efforts to ease concerns, trust among ASEAN members remains mixed, underscoring the challenge in maintaining stability within the region.