Ukraine Revises 2026 GDP Growth Forecast Down to 0.5–0.6% as Business Losses Set to Hit $10 Billion
Ukraine's Ministry of Economy Oleksandr Kravchenko expects business losses to reach $10 billion by the end of 2026 and is cutting its GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to about 0.5-0.6%. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) sees a milder downgrade, to 1.1-1.2% from 1.8%. Metinvest, Kernel and Intertop Ukraine described sector-level damage, while Kyiv weighs a First Loss Fund for war-risk insurance.
Ukraine has lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 0.5-0.6% from an earlier estimate of 2.4%. Minister of Economy and Environment Oleksandr Kravchenko cited export blockades and logistics disruption as the reasons for the downgrade. Business losses are expected to reach $10 billion by the end of the year. Ukraine is exploring ways to make doing business in wartime more insurable, including the creation of a First Loss Fund.
Lawmakers and businesses are divided on a proposed 1% increase in value-added tax to fund this mechanism. The National Bank of Ukraine expects a smaller decline, lowering its 2026 growth estimate to 1.1-1.2%. Deputy Governor Volodymyr Lepushynskyi attributed this to further destruction in industry and trade from Russian attacks and increasingly pessimistic business expectations.
Large companies reported critical conditions in various sectors. In steelmaking, Ukrainian metallurgy faced a production halt in September, and a Zaporizhstal furnace restart took 10 hours and cost $50 million. Grain exports fell to 40% of potential due to blocked seaports and the Danube route's limited capacity. Retail also faced challenges, with CEOs noting that 2026 is tougher than the initial year of the war.
Companies are adjusting to the new reality through inventory management, logistics improvements, and increased e-commerce.
Written by urgent.news from Kyiv Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
