There Are Plenty of Reasons to Be Concerned About Bioweapons Development—Even Without AI

Annie Jacobsen's latest book, "Biological War: A Scenario," explores the terrifying threats posed by bioweapons development, even in the absence of artificial intelligence (AI). Jacobsen, a seasoned national security reporter, notes that both nuclear and biological weapons are listed as the most dangerous weapons according to the Defense Department, with biological weapons ranking just below nuclear weapons on the threat spectrum.

This is primarily due to the relatively low threshold for entry into bioweapons development, making it more accessible to a wider range of actors.

Unlike nuclear weapons, which require fissile material and sophisticated delivery systems, biological weapons can be developed using readily available pathogens in research laboratories. There are approximately 3,600 such laboratories worldwide, compared to the nine nuclear-armed states. Jacobsen emphasizes that the greatest overall threat lies in the potential for accidental releases from these high-security labs.

She argues that the risk of an accidental release is far greater than the risk of a deliberate deployment by terrorists, as terrorists are more likely to resort to unconventional weapons like dirty bombs.

The author stresses the importance of educating the public about the existential threat posed by bioweapons, as well as the limitations in government preparedness and response. Despite the CIA's efforts to counter bioweapons programs, the sheer number of potential actors and laboratories makes an accidental release a statistically more likely scenario.

Jacobsen concludes that the combination of low barriers to entry and the potential for widespread catastrophe makes biological war the most concerning threat facing humanity.