Southwest monsoon ends with 12% deficit
Lowest monsoon rainfall since 2015; east and northeast saw driest monsoon since 1901, in line with recent trends; southern pensinsula saw fourth lowest rainfall since 1901; October expected to be hotter and drier than usual in most parts of the country
In 2026, India's southwest monsoon ended with 12.6% below normal rainfall, marking the lowest recorded since 2015. The east and northeast regions experienced its driest monsoon since systematic records began in 1901. The IMD predicted a subdued monsoon, aligning with forecasts from global weather agencies due to a strong El Nino.
While the final estimate fell within the predicted range, regional and monthly forecasts were significantly inaccurate. Rainfall was particularly deficient in the east and northeast, southern peninsula, and northwest India, with central India receiving slightly more rain than expected. Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, and Assam & Meghalaya subdivisions were rain-deficient throughout the monsoon season.
Nationally, 17 out of 36 subdivisions faced deficient rainfall, while 18 were normal, and one experienced excess rain. The monsoon is expected to withdraw by early October, with October likely to see below-normal rainfall, except in parts of northwest India, southern peninsular India, and isolated regions in the east.
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