September 2026: The world today, as seen by one Polish guy

A Pole reflects on the state of the world in September 2026. Poland, bordered by Europe's largest conflict since 1945, relies on coal and imported gas for energy, and arms itself using borrowed funds. The headlines no longer arrive as isolated events; crises seem to converge upon the nation. A war in the Gulf directly impacts the cost of diesel fuel, while reduced harvests from Sudan to Yemen contribute to food shortages.

The world is not ending, but the dependence on foreign resources has created vulnerabilities. The US and Israeli military operations in Iran since February have led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a 90% drop in tanker traffic. Oil prices have surged due to the closure, with Brent crude reaching as high as $108 per barrel by mid-September.

Iran offers a roadmap for a regional ceasefire, but the US rejects it, hinting at a possible resumption of bombing after the November midterm elections. Tanker shipping costs have skyrocketed, with some supertankers fetching over $860,000 per day. Ukrainian drones have struck Russian refineries multiple times, reducing Russia's refining output to a two-decade low.

Fuel prices in Europe have risen dramatically, with 15% of stations running out of petrol or diesel in France by mid-September. The closure of the strait affects the supply of fertilizer, threatening food production and security. The Global Report on Food Crises has documented two famines in Gaza and Sudan, with funding for food assistance dropping by 59% between 2022 and 2025.

The World Food Programme warns that high oil prices could push up to 45 million people into acute food insecurity. Poland, historically a food exporter, now faces challenges in its potato belt, with a 25% decrease in harvests due to drought and frost. Grain prices have surged, impacting the cost of milling wheat and maize. Despite being one of the most food self-sufficient countries in the EU, Poland is not immune to the global food crisis.