Renewables boom faces a Trump-era cliff

Despite President Trump's opposition to wind and solar energy, the renewable industry is booming. However, the American Clean Power Association (ACPA) warns that growth could plummet as early as 2028 due to a lack of permitting. Wind and solar development is still profitable, thanks to favorable economics and projects started before Trump's presidency.

A bipartisan deal to expedite energy permitting is expected to be announced by Senate negotiators, but it won't be approved until after the midterm elections. Democrats are seeking assurances that the administration will permit stalled wind and solar projects in exchange for supporting the broader permitting changes. Grumet, ACPA's CEO, called the agreement encouraging, citing its technology-neutral approach and provisions for administration approval of wind projects.

The White House, however, maintains that their actions are a continuation of policies from previous administrations. The Republican tax law signed by Trump in 2025 has accelerated the expiration of federal tax credits for new wind and solar projects, meaning projects must begin construction before July 4 or come online before 2028 to qualify for these credits.

Despite the obstacles, renewable energy remains the cheapest form of new power generation on an unsubsidized basis, according to Lazard's analysis. The fight over permitting is taking place amid a rise in U.S. electricity demand, driven by the AI boom. The administration's stance on renewables is seen by some as contradicting the need to lower energy costs, while others argue that the administration shouldn't oppose renewable energy and should instead focus on nuclear power.

The Pentagon's delays in reviewing onshore wind projects are a significant hurdle in the permitting process.