Oil Prices Climb as Trump Rules Out Easing Iran Sanctions

Oil prices rose today, climbing back up after falling earlier in the week, after President Trump declared he would not ease sanctions on Iran, which has hurt exports from one of OPEC's biggest suppliers. At present, Brent crude is trading at $103.13 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate is at $89.53, both expected to end the month higher.

Brent's rise is more significant, gaining around $10 per barrel, while WTI is up about $3 per barrel. Earlier this week, oil prices fell slightly due to reports that Persian Gulf oil flows had recovered to nearly pre-war daily averages. However, analysts remain skeptical about the sustainability of this recovery. Analyst Sugandha Sachdeva of India-based SS WealthStreet said that ongoing uncertainty surrounding sanctions relief and ongoing negotiations are keeping geopolitical risk premiums in prices.

"Improving supplies could limit further gains, but renewed disruption or an escalation in tensions could trigger another rally," she added. According to Kpler data, Persian Gulf exports have surged this month, with Hormuz flows alone at 13.2 million barrels daily, or 77% of pre-war levels. Another report by Reuters citing Kpler data indicated Hormuz flows of 7.4 million barrels daily, with total Middle East oil exports at 12.8 million barrels daily.

Despite increased vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, flows are still below pre-conflict levels, contributing to market oversupply, according to UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. This shortfall, along with the ongoing risk of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, could be keeping oil prices elevated.