Oil holds losses as Middle East supply recovers; set for monthly jump

Oil prices held steady on Wednesday after a sharp drop the day before, as signs of increasing Middle East exports counteracted worries about potential disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent Oil Futures for November settled up 0.1% to $102.68 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 0.2% to $89.24 per barrel.

Both benchmarks had fallen over 2% on Tuesday, with Brent down 2.6% and WTI 3.5% from their previous session. Despite Tuesday's decline, Brent is on track for a monthly increase of around 14%. The recent rally was driven by Saudi Arabia's reopening of its Red Sea port of Yanbu and the resumption of crude shipments via the East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Aramco has disclosed its October loading schedule, and shipping data revealed approximately 10 million barrels were loaded at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz. Saudi Arabia is currently sending around half of its pipeline capacity through the East-West pipeline, as reported by Bloomberg. While the recovery has mitigated some supply risks from the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant uncertainty, having been severely disrupted during the recent U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Diplomatic efforts to reopen the waterway, including mediation by Qatar, have yet to yield a breakthrough. Iran continues to demand conditions linked to the reopening, while President Trump has dismissed reports that Washington provided sanctions relief to Tehran. Meanwhile, a Financial Times article suggests that Trump is contemplating various measures, including a potential diesel export ban, to address surging domestic fuel prices amid a worsening energy crisis and mounting political pressure on his administration.

U.S. diesel prices reached $6.53 per gallon last week, more than 70% higher than their prewar levels.