JP Morgan, Goldman Diverge on Hormuz Oil Flow Estimates

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have nearly returned to pre-war levels, according to JP Morgan's commodity analysts. Their September estimates put daily oil flows at an average of 17.5 million barrels, or 98% of pre-war levels. Fuel exports were also on the rise, with 3 million barrels daily, or 58% of pre-war daily averages. The analysts described the recovery as "remarkable" for a region still at war.

However, Goldman Sachs took a more optimistic stance, estimating oil outflows in the Persian Gulf at 23.3 million barrels daily, which matches 2025 daily averages. The bank noted a divergence between Iranian exports falling and exports from other Persian Gulf producers rising. Saudi Arabia's exports more than doubled in September and exceeded their 2025 average.

Not all estimates of Hormuz oil flows are as positive. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated exports from the Persian Gulf at 17 million barrels daily, though they were "sometimes" as high as that figure. TotalEnergies' CEO estimated average daily exports via Hormuz at 10 million barrels.

JP Morgan's team concluded that while the Strait of Hormuz's oil exports have returned to late-June highs, this should not be seen as improved safety. Instead, the analysts said, it reflects the industry's ability to operate under sustained risk.