Indonesia’s August trade surplus expected to widen, September inflation seen higher: Reuters poll

Indonesia anticipates its trade surplus to expand to approximately $630 million in August, while the country's inflation rate for September may increase marginally, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The poll was carried out between September 25 and September 29, preceding the official data release on October 1. Here are the key insights from the September 25 to September 29 survey:

The median projection from 17 economists anticipates a slowdown in August export growth to 4.30%, down from 6.05% in the previous month. Conversely, import growth is forecasted to accelerate to 31.14%, up from 27.02% in July.

Notably, the trade surplus rose to $130 million in July, marking a shift from the trade deficits in the preceding two months. This reversal of fortunes ended a trade surplus streak that spanned roughly six years, which had begun with a deficit in May.

According to a survey of 20 economists, September's headline inflation is expected to climb to 3.30% from 3.19%, staying within the central bank's target range of 1.5% to 3.5%. The average estimate for core inflation in September is projected to be 2.91%, essentially unchanged from the August figure of 2.92%.