India's monsoon deficit widens to 12%; El Nino strengthens, positive IOD offers some relief: Report

New Delhi, India: India's monsoon deficit has widened to 12% as El Nino intensifies, though a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may help mitigate some of the impact, according to a recent ICICI Bank report. The Nino 3.4 index has risen to 2.72, surpassing the 2.14 recorded in 2015 during the same period, the report noted. On September 28, cumulative rainfall across India stood at 757 mm, around 12% below the Long Period Average (LPA), with uneven distribution across regions.

East India saw the highest rainfall deficit at 25% below LPA, followed by South India at 24%. Northwest India and Central India recorded smaller deficits of 6% and 2%, respectively. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 received deficient rainfall, 18 normal rainfall, and one excess rainfall. All-India rainfall was 5% below LPA between September 1 and 28, but recent improvements have narrowed the deficit.

The IOD index entered the positive zone at 0.76, potentially offsetting El Nino's adverse effects. The monsoon deficit coincided with lower kharif sowing compared to the previous year. As of September 25, around 110.8 million hectares had been sown, down 1.2% from 112.1 million hectares in the same period last year, but still at 100.3% of the normal level.

Rice sowing fell 3.6% year-on-year to 43.1 million hectares, while pulses acreage increased 2%, supported by a 12.4% rise in urad sowing and a 2.8% increase in arhar acreage. Moong acreage declined 3.7% year-on-year. Reservoir storage across the country remained below last year's level, with total live storage in 150 reservoirs at 130 billion cubic meters, or 71% of their combined capacity of 182.4 BCM.

The improvement in reservoir storage in the Eastern, Western, and Central regions could offer some relief against below-normal rainfall, but the strengthening El Nino conditions remain a significant risk to the monsoon outlook.