Gold on track for monthly decline as investors brace for US inflation data

Gold prices remained relatively stable on Wednesday, September 30, but were poised for a monthly decline as investors anticipated higher interest rates and awaited US inflation data. The metal was trading around US$4,180.30 per ounce at 4:35 am GMT but had lost 6% so far in September. US gold futures surged 0.8% to US$4,212.70. The US dollar appeared set for a monthly gain, making greenback-denominated metals pricier for holders of other currencies.

Anticipated higher interest rates posed a challenge for gold, which typically loses appeal when yields rise. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 47% probability of a Fed rate hike in October and a 92% chance of a hike in December. The Federal Reserve already raised rates by 25 basis points in September. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams suggested that policymakers may need just one more increase in 2026 to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target.

Geopolitical developments also weighed on markets. Qatar expressed hope that shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington would lead to a breakthrough, despite US President Donald Trump's denial of easing sanctions on Iran in exchange for nuclear concessions. Silver, platinum, and palladium all declined slightly, with spot silver down 0.6% to US$61.07, platinum falling 0.2% to US$1,703.19, and palladium losing 0.2% to US$1,220.61. All three metals were on track for monthly declines.