Geldanlage: Fondsmanager – „Für die Garantie zahlen Sie einen hohen Preis“

German investors often misunderstand the relationship between returns and risk, leading to excessive reliance on guaranteed products. Jan Viebig, a highly respected capital market expert, explains why guarantee products are a high-priced solution. In his recently released book, Viebig emphasizes the importance of investing in equities for long-term wealth accumulation.

Investing in equities historically offers a risk premium of about six percent compared to risk-free interest rates, but they come with significant volatility. Short-term investments in broad equity indexes like MSCI World can result in a 24% chance of capital loss. Over a 15-year period, MSCI World has never experienced a loss. As the investment horizon increases, the risk of loss decreases.

Bond investments can be used to reduce portfolio risk, but many retail investors are unfamiliar with this asset class. As a general rule, the older someone is, the more bonds should be in their portfolio. However, the investment horizon is equally important as age. Younger individuals should allocate a larger portion of their portfolio to equities due to their ability to withstand market fluctuations.

For those with a shorter time horizon, such as those nearing retirement, reducing risk and increasing bond investments is advisable. The traditional 60/40 portfolio, which consists of 60% equities and 40% bonds, is considered too simplistic. The optimal stock-to-bond ratio depends on an individual's risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Generally, younger people should invest more in equities, while those nearing retirement should shift towards bonds. It is crucial to start investing early, avoid overconfidence, and maintain a diversified portfolio across various countries, regions, and industries. When evaluating individual companies, ask yourself six key questions: 1) Does the company offer desirable products or services?

2) Does the company create value? (Its return on capital must exceed its cost of capital.) 3) Is management controlling costs? (Profit margins, especially operating margins, should be high.) 4) Is the company over-leveraged? (High debt levels increase the risk of default.) 5) Are revenues growing steadily? 6) Does the company adhere to ethical and moral principles?

By carefully considering these factors, investors can better assess the potential of individual companies and make informed investment decisions. However, even a good company may be a poor investment if its stock is overvalued.