Fluxo de petróleo volta ao nível pré-guerra. Por que o preço não cai?

The flow of oil from the Persian Gulf has returned to levels close to pre-war times, as reported by Goldman Sachs in a recent analysis of the recovery of barrel shipments. Despite this, the Brent crude price remains above US$100, raising questions about the lack of price decline. The bank's team believes the fear of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil passes, is the main risk not yet priced in.

Although Goldman Sachs does not project a return to pre-war levels for Brent, they anticipate prices staying above that level through the end of the year and into 2027, with a potential drop to US$85 by year-end and US$80 in 2027. Analysts remain concerned about potential new escalations that could cause further damage to energy infrastructure, which could lead to significant price increases.

Global oil stocks at a low point also contribute to countries' desire to quickly replenish reserves, driven by fears of renewed tensions. Even with improved flow through Hormuz and alternative routes, the industry is still recovering from the conflict's impact on refineries and the passage of tankers carrying diesel and other fuels through the strait, which are smaller and more vulnerable than the crude carriers.

The Brent-diesel spread, the difference between the price of Brent and diesel, has reached record levels. In 2008, when Brent was at US$147, it was a full-blown oil crisis; in 2026, it is a derivatives crisis. The industry's refining woes are supporting elevated margins for some time, according to John Arnold, a former Enron trader and energy fund manager.

Oddone, with experience in Petrobras and energy sector management, points to the refining industry's stress as a key factor in supporting margins. The Brazilian government's subsidies for diesel, gasoline, and ethanol, totaling R$7 billion per month, are currently covering R$5 billion for diesel alone. President Lula recently commented on this unprecedented situation, noting that it may be the only large-scale consumer country to pull off such a subsidy scheme.