Europe gas edges higher as British gas tracks toward 3rd straight monthly advance

European and British wholesale natural gas prices continued their upward trend on Wednesday, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and lingering supply concerns heading into winter. The benchmark Dutch front-month contract climbed 1.1% to 73.33 euros per megawatt-hour, rebounding after a brief early-week drop.

In the United Kingdom, the day-ahead wholesale gas contract surged 3.5% to 187.24 pence per therm. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase for the British market, fueled by strong power sector demand and elevated export flows stretching local inventories. Meanwhile, the Dutch benchmark was poised to end September flat, after a volatile month featuring rapid changes in liquefied natural gas flows and fluctuating weather forecasts.

Despite the stabilization, European underground storage levels remain about 12 percentage points below the same point last year, leaving the continent's energy markets vulnerable to sudden disruptions. The general sentiment among European natural gas markets remains cautious, influenced by heightened geopolitical risks along major transit routes.

Recent tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, following the failure of recent ceasefire talks, have kept Brent crude prices above $106 a barrel and amplified worries of energy-driven inflation. Energy traders caution that European gas prices will remain sensitive to high baseline risk heading into the fourth quarter, as global LNG supplies face potential re-routing and intense competition from Asian buyers.