Democrats want a blue wave. New Hampshire is Exhibit A for why that may not happen

Five weeks before Election Day, Democratic enthusiasm reached a fever pitch in New Hampshire. With Republicans struggling to overcome President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, Democrats are on the offensive in Republican strongholds, including New Hampshire. Many Democratic leaders predict that their party will gain a House majority and potentially retake the Senate majority, which seemed unthinkable just a year ago.

However, Democrats are overlooking significant vulnerabilities that could hinder their momentum in swing-state New Hampshire.

The Democrats’ brand is deeply unpopular, with a whopping 55% of voters holding a "strongly" or "somewhat" unfavorable view of them. Furthermore, they have virtually no room for error in midterm races that are largely taking place in Republican-leaning states. New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Ray Buckley expressed concerns about his state’s Senate contest, where Republicans are investing significantly more resources than Democrats.

"There is reason for concern," Buckley stated. "We don’t want to let this one slip away because they were sending resources to some other unicorns — some other state that’s just not possible."

Despite these warnings, there is little concern among senior Democratic officials. They attribute their success to Trump’s poor standing, with voters frustrated by the war with Iran and surging costs under Republican control in Washington. Pollster John Anzalone noted that "we’re winning because they’re losing," emphasizing that it's not their efforts but rather the Republican party's shortcomings.

However, the Democratic brand remains unpopular, with both parties receiving negative views from a significant share of voters. Additionally, Democratic fundraising is lagging behind Republicans. In the crucial Senate race in New Hampshire, Republicans are outspending Democrats by $41.2 million to $35.4 million statewide. This financial advantage allows Republicans to dominate the airwaves during the final days of the campaign.