Debêntures de infra têm maior spread desde 2024. Fundos devem sofrer (de novo)
Num ano de volatilidade brutal para as debêntures de infraestrutura, os spreads desses papéis incentivados acabam de chegar ao maior nível desde 2024. O spread – o prêmio em relação às NTN-Bs de prazo equivalente – está em 0,4 ponto percentual na mediana dos papéis monitorados pela Anbima. Considerando apenas os títulos mais líquidos do […] The post Debêntures de infra têm maior spread desde…
In a year marked by extreme volatility for infrastructure debentures, their spreads have reached their highest level since 2024. The spread, which is the premium over equivalent NTN-Bs with the same maturity, is now 0.4 percentage points on average across the securities being tracked by Anbima. When considering only the most liquid titles in the market, the spread rises to 0.74 percentage points, surpassing the historical average of 0.57, according to the IDEX-Infra.
The volatility in spreads has been dramatic throughout the year. In March, spreads were negative. However, with the market's recalibration, fund managers investing in infrastructure debentures may face a horrific September, potentially reducing demand for these products even further.
During the year, losses caused by volatility and defaults from companies like Raízen and GPA have deterred investors. Additionally, the expansion of the fee-based model in financial advisory services has resulted in fewer advisors recommending these securities, which are paid at a high commission. This has reduced the participation of retail investors in the market.
Due to the low demand and high cost of credit for companies, infrastructure emissions have hit their lowest level since January 2019. In August, emissions amounted to a paltry R$ 170 million (m being used for million), a drop of 97.5% compared to July and 98% lower than August 2025, according to Anbima. However, the volume has since recovered in September, though it is still far from 2025's levels.
The seasonal nature of the market means that demand is repressed by companies' reluctance to issue new debt. However, a more consistent resurgence depends on future interest rate prospects. For those willing to take on the risk, the market is full of opportunities. "With the market suffering, it's an interesting time to capture the premium in the secondary market," says Rafael Fritsch, the CIO of Root Capital, who recently launched a listed infrastructure fund.
For managers at Leto Capital, infrastructure debentures hold "the best risk-return ratio among private credit subclasses, which has spurred a steady increase in our exposure to this category."
Written by urgent.news from Brazil Journal's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
