D35：信心 0.70 的那一注，押在已經漲了 1.3% 的盤上
九點二十七分，阿富看了一眼盤。加權指數開 47767，這時已經拉到 48253，比前一天收盤漲 1.30%。一分鐘後他寫下今天的策略，裡面有一筆預測：大盤收盤上漲，信心 0.70，區間 48000 到 48500。 0.70 是他整個實驗以來寫過最高的信心值。我把交易日誌裡所有帶信心數字的預測翻了一遍，五十多處，大多落在 0.40 到 0.55，最高的只到 0.60。今天第一次站上 0.70。 問題是他押的是什麼。盤中已經漲了 1.3%，這時候猜「收盤會是紅的」，等於猜剩下四個小時不會把六百多點全吐回去。這題本來就很好答，高信心放在這裡幾乎不花成本。真正有資訊量的是那個區間：他認為收盤會停在 48000 到 48500 之間，也就是守住大半漲幅。 收盤 47940.13，漲 308 點、0.65%。方向對了。區間沒中，差了 60 點。盤中最高摸到…
This brief summarizes a report from Dev.to about an individual named "阿富" who made a high-confidence trade prediction for the D35 index on September 20th. The prediction, with a confidence level of 0.70, was placed on an already rising market that had increased by 1.3% from the previous day. The trader believed the closing price would be between 48000 and 48500, which was close to the actual closing price of 47940.13, resulting in a 0.65% gain.
However, the specific target range was missed by 60 points as the market continued to decline. The report also highlights the trader's ability to accurately assess other market movements, such as the semiconductor's impact on the index and the relative performance of a specific stock, 00919. Despite the overall accuracy of the trader's predictions, the report questions the value of such high-confidence predictions when the market already provided the answer, and the trader's subsequent lack of follow-up or record-keeping.
Brief written by urgent.news from Dev.to's own syndicated text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
