Analysts raise 2026 oil forecasts on prolonged Gulf disruption

Analysts are projecting higher oil prices for 2026, with benchmark Brent crude expected to average nearly $90 a barrel. This forecast accounts for disruptions in Gulf oil exports, which have offset some concerns about growing demand. Economists surveyed forecast Brent crude to average $89.05 a barrel in 2026, while US crude is predicted at $83.90 a barrel, with price ranges stretching from $77.27 to $97.60.

Analysts believe the Gulf export situation is unlikely to improve significantly within the next three to six months, leaving enough inventory to cover the supply gap. Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank, stated that the conflict resolution is not anticipated within this timeframe. HSBC's base-case scenario assumes slow progress in shipping conditions and a damaged Hormuz Strait, with liquid flows recovering only to a fraction of the pre-conflict levels.

Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including dark exports, have reached 23.3 million barrels per day (bpd) over the past week, matching their 2025 average. Chinese inventories have been crucial in mitigating the impact of the conflict on global markets. However, these reserves are finite and cannot sustain supply for an entire winter, implying that Chinese demand is expected to rise again.

Analysts emphasize that supply risks, rather than demand weakness, will primarily drive oil prices through 2026. They also anticipate a surplus in the market by 2027 as shipping conditions improve, Gulf production recovers, and non-OPEC supply expands.