US exit leaves Iraq facing new security risks

Iraq prepares for significant changes as US troops withdraw, but security concerns persist

This week in Iraq, a series of important milestones will reshape the nation's political landscape. The planned withdrawal of US troops and the ongoing process of placing militia weapons under state control are key elements of this transition. Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi is leading the efforts to curb the power of Iran-backed militias while maintaining a foreign troop-free state.

The US-led coalition fighting ISIS has also commenced its mission exit, with the remaining American soldiers in Iraqi Kurdistan set to depart by September 30.

However, despite the anticipated withdrawal, security concerns continue to loom over Iraq. While Iraqi officials are committed to the US drawdown deadline, the Kurdistan Regional Government remains hesitant to see the forces stay longer. The situation is further complicated by strained relations with neighboring Arab countries and a lack of trust among regional states.

In light of the Iran conflict, Iraq finds itself in a precarious position. American assets and bases have faced attacks, while Iran-aligned groups have targeted the country as well. Iranian-aligned factions launched drones and missiles towards Gulf states, prompting the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan to hold Baghdad accountable for the attacks originating from its territory.

Iraq has been grappling with Iranian-backed armed groups' calls for foreign troop withdrawal, despite their history of targeting US facilities and coalition forces. Since the onset of the Iran war in February, these militias have attacked US-affiliated targets within Iraq and its borders while also collaborating with Yemen’s Houthis to strike Saudi Arabia. The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 aimed to overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime and subsequently occupy the country, battling insurgents until 2011.

The Iraqi government initially fixed the withdrawal date of American forces from Iraq at September 30, a decision made by Prime Minister Al Zaidi during his visit to Washington in July. However, most militias have no plans to disarm by the deadline, leading the government to push back the date to June 2027. Several prominent pro-Iranian armed groups, such as Asaib Ahl Al Haq and Kataib Imam Ali, claim they have placed their weapons under state authority, but hardline factions like Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba refuse to disarm until US forces are gone.

As Iraq prepares for its "Days of Sovereignty" holidays on Wednesday and Thursday, the nation remains divided over the pullout of US forces. While some praise the move and view it as a historic achievement, others express skepticism, warning that the absence of US air support, intelligence, and air defenses could leave security gaps.