US Dollar stays fundamentally supported – Scotiabank
Scotiabank’s Global FX Strategy team, led by Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret, notes broad Dollar strength versus most G10 currencies, with focus on Oil, US yields and the Federal Reserve rate path.
Scotiabank’s Global FX Strategy team remains bullish on the US dollar, attributing its recent gains to fundamentals. The team, led by Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret, highlights that the gains since early September are driven by 2-year yield spreads. The broader tone is defensive, with a mild risk aversion as US equity futures show modest losses, while US bond yields stay well supported with the 10-year hitting a fresh high above 5.2%, its highest since 2007.
The yield curve's shape is also drawing attention due to its flattening, which could impact the broader USD. The team remains convinced that the DXY's gains stem from a fair value estimate based on 2-year spreads, currently at 100.5, aligning with the spot near 101. The DXY has reached the June 24 high and its 2026 year-to-date high.
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