Triple Flag Precious Metals at Mining Forum Americas 2026: growth, cash flow

On Tuesday, 29 September 2026, Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) utilized Mining Forum Americas 2026 to announce a year of significant portfolio growth, substantial capital investment, and consistent shareholder returns. However, the company cautioned that competition for new streaming and royalty agreements remains fierce.

TFPM management credited multiple development milestones for the company's success but emphasized its commitment to disciplined pricing and avoidance of aggressive underwriting assumptions. In 2026, the firm allocated $550 million to new deals, bringing the total deployment from January 1, 2025, to $900 million.

The company reaffirmed its 2030 guidance for gold equivalent ounces, projecting between 150,000 and 160,000 ounces, although the target does not include the Hope Bay asset and is not anticipated to represent the peak production level. Northparkes, Hope Bay, Ravenswood, and Koné were identified as the primary drivers of growth across the portfolio.

The business continues to generate roughly $400 million in annual cash flow, with dividends consuming about 10% of this amount. In 2026, TFPM returned $265 million to shareholders and intends to maintain annual dividend increases. As of 2026, annual cash flow stands at approximately $400 million, with dividends accounting for about 10% of that figure.

Management highlighted the streaming and royalty model's continued success, boasting margins of around 90% and no exposure to operating costs or capital expenditures at the mine level. The company's actual gross profit margin reached an impressive 85.82% over the past twelve months, contributing to its $6.34 billion market capitalization.

InvestingPro analysis suggests that TFPM's stock trades below its fair value, positioning it among opportunities on the platform's Most Undervalued list. The company has consistently delivered peer-leading returns on invested capital since its initial public offering.

TFPM emphasized several assets nearing production or boosting near-term output. Northparkes, the company's biggest and most promising growth asset, has the E48 Sublevel Cave producing higher gold grades than historical averages. The E22 Block Cave is expected to commence production within four years, while a newly discovered E44 gold-only deposit near Northparkes is projected to deliver 45,000 ounces between 2031 and 2037.

Evolution Mining is considering expanding processing capacity at Northparkes from 7.6 million tons annually to between 10 million and 15 million tons.

Hope Bay, a district-scale asset acquired by Agnico Eagle, is expected to commence production in 2030, with guidance ranging from 400,000 to 450,000 ounces per year for 11 years. Triple Flag described Hope Bay as a district-scale asset with an 80-kilometer strike length and significant exploration potential, with the Doris and Patch 7 deposits currently under development and the Boston deposit showing promising results.

Ravenswood Gold Stream, acquired by TFPM following an initial stream ounces production, is ramping up and contracted for initial deliveries over the next two years. Steady-state production is targeted at 200,000 ounces annually. The 1,600-square-kilometer area offers decades of potential life.

Koné achieved its first gold pour earlier than anticipated and contributes to sequential growth through the 2030 guidance period. AngloGold Ashanti has announced an initial reserve for the Nevada project, which management considers a Tier 1 mine nearing completion. Eskay Creek is expected to generate further news in 2027, while Tamarack, a 1.7% royalty holder on the nickel-copper project in Minnesota, is recognized as a below-the-radar asset with strong grades and development progress.

Polo Sur, a copper deposit in Chile, is expected to enter the mine plan sooner than previously thought. The company's long-term growth profile remains intact and should extend beyond the current five-year guidance period, with 2030 guidance set at 150,000 to 160,000 gold equivalent ounces. Production is expected to increase each year through the forecast period, excluding Hope Bay, which is anticipated to start production in 2030.

Management also stated that 2030 is not the peak, and production should continue growing beyond that year.