Treasury growth forecasts largely unchanged - house prices weaker

US stocks experienced a significant drop on Monday as higher oil prices and Treasury yields weighed on investor sentiment, with concerns over an Iran peace deal and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Crude prices surged after Trump rejected Iran's peace offer, though they later cooled as Qatari mediators considered facilitating talks between the nations.

Oil prices and fuel costs heightened inflation concerns, causing Treasury yields to climb and prompting Fed officials to suggest further rate hikes if inflation remains stubborn. Jack Ablin, a prominent investment strategist, noted that the Fed's move suggests interest rates may look more appealing compared to equities, a scenario not seen in nearly two decades.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 347.11 points, or 0.67%, to 51,481.51, while the S&P 500 fell 59.72 points, or 0.77%, to 7,683.69, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 248.34 points, or 0.92%, to 26,820.38. Boeing shares plummeted 6.9%, the primary contributor to the Dow's decline, following a Federal Aviation Administration announcement to delay certification of the long-delayed 737 MAX 10 due to a software issue.

Conversely, Nvidia shares rose 1.6% after the company announced a $150 billion stock repurchase, the largest of its kind. Iran's peace proposal, relayed through Qatari mediators, led to initial optimism but was rejected by Trump, though he hinted at continued negotiations. Fed Governor Lisa Cook predicted ongoing inflationary pressure from factors such as artificial intelligence demand and higher oil prices, though she did not explicitly state that additional rate hikes were necessary.

The probability of a Fed rate hike during the upcoming October meeting has risen to 70.3%, up from 57.6% the previous week and 17.7% a month prior. Economic indicators, including inflation data and labor market reports, are expected to influence Fed policy decisions in the coming week. Tesla shares fell 3.9% after JPMorgan lowered its price target due to weak third-quarter deliveries.

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, with the S&P 500 achieving four new 52-week highs and 29 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 40 new highs and 249 new lows. Overall trading volume on US exchanges reached 16.71 billion shares, surpassing the 16.85 billion average for the past 20 trading days.