SpaceX faces "an unprecedented set of AI and space" opportunities: TD Cowen

TD Cowen recently initiated coverage on SpaceX with a positive outlook, assigning a Buy rating and setting a $200 price target. The investment bank attributes this optimism to SpaceX's expanding role in AI and space, stating that leasing AI computing power is driving near-term growth, with larger opportunities on the horizon. Analyst John Blackledge anticipates that SpaceX's ground-based AI computing business, which caters to tech giants like Google and Anthropic, will become its fastest-growing revenue stream and largest by the first quarter of 2027.

According to Blackledge, AI Compute leasing revenue could reach $14 billion in 2026, $66 billion in 2027, and $133 billion in 2028, representing 70% of SpaceX's total incremental revenue by 2027-2028. The firm projects SpaceX's ground-based capacity to grow from 2.1 gigawatts this year to 6.0 gigawatts by 2027 and 22 gigawatts by 2031.

Overall, TD Cowen anticipates 62% annual revenue growth from 2026 to 2031, with $297 billion in EBITDA by the latter year. Regarding SpaceX's Starlink service, TD Cowen expects 107 million consumer subscribers by 2031, including 10 million in the U.S., with enterprise and government connectivity potentially proving more lucrative opportunities.

Blackledge also highlights SpaceX's leading position in low Earth orbit (LEO) upmass capacity, projecting launches to nearly 1,000 per year by 2031, a lead that may persist for a decade.