South Korean exports seen rising for 16th month on solid AI chip demand: Reuters poll

South Korean exports are anticipated to have increased for the 16th consecutive month in September, driven by strong demand for chip technology tied to artificial intelligence investments, according to a Reuters poll. The forecasted growth stands at 62.0% for the month, up from 68.7% in August, according to a median estimate from 18 economists. However, the pace of growth is expected to slow slightly due to fewer working days compared to the previous year.

South Korea's exports, which serve as a barometer for global trade, are anticipated to have risen by 62.0% in September compared to the same period last year. This projection is slightly lower than the 68.7% growth seen in August, as September has 21.5 working days, down from 24 days in September 2023 due to the Chuseok holidays falling in September this year and October last year.

The slowdown in growth can be attributed to calendar effects, with the first 20 days of September alone witnessing a remarkable 78.3% increase in exports, leading to a record high. Semiconductor sales surged 259.4% during this period, contributing significantly to the export boom. An Ki-tae, an economist at NH Investment Securities, noted that the surge in semiconductor exports is likely to continue, driven by escalating trends in AI hyper-scaler investments.

The trend of rising exports has been consistent since June 2025, fueled by the global boom in AI investments. Over this period, exports have consistently shown double-digit annual growth rates since December. The growth rate peaked in June at 70.4%, marking the strongest pace in nearly half a century.

Despite the growing demand, concerns have recently surfaced among industry leaders regarding the potential dangers of unchecked AI development. This has led to calls for a potential slowdown in AI progress. In September, imports were projected to have grown by 21.5%, following a 22.4% increase in August. The median forecast predicts a record monthly trade surplus of $38.15 billion, up from $34.79 billion in the previous month.

South Korea is set to release its trade figures for September on October 1, 2023, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).