Qué esperar del último trimestre del año en Bolsa

As the final quarter of the year approaches, investors are making their last adjustments to portfolios before the onset of the last quarter of the year. Six emerging catalysts are seen as key references in a period that begins with an unusual combination, according to consulted analysts. Caution is advised: one can make money in the year-end closing, but choosing the right place, both in the stock market and in debt, is essential.

The year-end rally is not guaranteed, though it is very likely statistically. However, the current situation deviates from statistics. Moreover, two of the consulted analysts agree exactly in terms of the current anomaly.

The financial markets face the last quarter of 2026 with an unusual combination. The words are shared by José Manuel Villamor, director of the Wealth Management department at A&G, and Virginia Pérez, director of Investments at Tressis. The Tressis director emphasizes the anomaly that the stock exchanges are near their highs, and the U.S. 10-year bond is at 5.24%, its highest level since 2007.

Villamor highlights the combination of a resilient U.S. economy and corporate profits that continue to support the stock market, alongside elevated oil prices and rising interest rates. The interest rate hike could bring a more encouraging nuance to the stock market. Emilio Ortiz, director of investments at Mutuactivos, considers that its impact is already reflected in the valuations of all assets.

Additionally, Ortiz suggests that central banks perfectly know the risk of excessively increasing interest rates, and therefore, they will not let this happen. With variable income mitigating the impact of rates and debt, Javier Navarro stresses the key role of corporate results. The Abante manager draws attention to the fact that we are entering the last quarter with an economy that continues to grow solidly and with extraordinarily good corporate profits, which sustain the good performance of variable income.

The corporate front continues to blow in favor of the economy. The economic front is also stable at the moment. From a more macro perspective, Federico Battaner, director of Investments at Anta AM, points out that our view of the world economy's trajectory for the last quarter of 2026 is moderate growth but resilient, marked by decelerating cyclical, persistent inflationary pressures, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty.

The economy's resilience and, in particular, the dynamism of corporate profits have maintained the stock indices at historic highs. Multiple latent factors of uncertainty at the end of the year and starting the quarter at record levels activate additional caution among the consulted analysts about the possibility of repeating the traditional year-end rally in the stock market.

The final balance of the quarter may depend on six key catalysts for the markets, broken down by the consulted analysts.

1. The conflict in the Middle East and oil will be a clear conditioning factor for market evolution. The recent escalation has raised oil prices, transferring inflation pressures, debt interest rates, and central bank policies. A supply route improvement would alleviate inflation expectations and could give room to bonds and stocks.

If, on the contrary, oil remains under pressure, central banks would have less space to soften their monetary policy, according to José Manuel Villamor, director of A&G's Wealth Management department.

2. Central bank meetings are a focus of special vigilance for the last quarter of the year. Not without reason, markets currently anticipate new interest rate increases by central banks such as the U.S. Fed or the European Central Bank.

3. Macro data takes a prominent role amidst the renewed bullish cycle in interest rates. Figures like U.S. inflation and employment will determine if the market must prepare for additional monetary policy tightening. Analysts also give a notable influence to figures on the U.S. deficit.

4. Fiscal policy is precisely one of the axes that move the markets. Virginia Pérez, director of Investments at Tressis, highlights that what moves the markets nowadays is not monetary policy but fiscal. She explains that our main conviction is that the hardest inflation to moderate is not brought by oil, but by the deficit, since oil's risk is temporary. The latter does not. The result, adds, is a scenario where debt yields are at multi-decade highs.

5. The midterm elections in the U.S., scheduled for November 3rd, could lower or exacerbate these fiscal alerts, hence the importance of new developments from the electoral campaign and the new political distribution in the world's largest economy.

6. Corporate profits complete the list of key references for markets in the last quarter of the year. Several consulted analysts agree that results can continue to be the most influential catalyst for the stock market. The combination of these key references will condition the final direction of the markets in the year's final stretch. For this period, we continue to see the variable income journey.