Post-Assad Syria is facing its biggest stress test yet. Here’s why that matters

In eastern Syria, a man expressed frustration over escalating fuel prices to a crowd recording him on their phones and addressed the transitional president. He urged for continued support and warned that if conditions did not improve by the new year, the situation would deteriorate. Security personnel were present as he openly criticized the government. This marked a stark contrast to the authoritarian regime of the past, where such defiance could result in severe consequences.

Protests erupted across Syria earlier this month, marking the broadest demonstrations since the country's fall nearly two years ago. Unlike in the past, these protests were met with leniency and individuals were able to return home safely. The demonstrations were well-covered by state media, a significant shift from Assad's regime, which often discredited them by claiming they were orchestrated from abroad.

The protests were ignited by the government's abrupt decision to increase fuel prices by up to 40%, a move attributed to the global energy crisis stemming from the Iran war. In response, the government partly rolled back some of the increases and invited the energy minister to parliament to demonstrate accountability. However, this move has not alleviated the economic hardships faced by many Syrians.

While the government has been commended for its swift response to the economic stress test, analysts caution that this will not resolve the root causes of the country's cost-of-living crisis. According to the World Bank, two-thirds of Syrians live below the lower middle-income poverty line, earning less than $3.65 a day. Ibrahim al-Assil, the director of the Harvard Kennedy School's Syria in Transition Lab, stated that further protests are inevitable and that overcoming these severe economic challenges will become increasingly difficult.

This growing economic strain is causing a widening gap between Syrians' expectations of their new government and their current reality. Charles Lister, the director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, remarked that the honeymoon period was always destined to end, as people's expectations would inevitably rise and their patience would wane if those expectations were not met.

Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa is striving to rebuild Syria, a daunting task estimated to cost $216 billion. He inherited a nearly bankrupt state, plundered by Assad and his associates, leaving the new regime largely dependent on foreign investment. Al-Sharaa has endeavored to restore Syria's standing in the international community after decades of isolation. He has successfully reestablished diplomatic relationships and demonstrated to the world that regional security must begin in Damascus.

Al-Sharaa has benefited from the global approval of his leadership, particularly his warm relationship with US President Donald Trump. They have met four times since May last year, resulting in the complete removal of all US sanctions on Syria, which is crucial for unlocking foreign investment. Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have driven most foreign investments thus far, amounting to an estimated $28 billion in investments last year.

The European Union has pledged $2.7 billion in support, and French President Emmanuel Macron signed several agreements with al-Sharaa.