Lula widens his first-round lead to five points, but the runoff remains tied

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has increased his lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro to five points in voting intentions for Sunday's first round, according to a Quaest poll released on Monday, despite the two remaining tied in a prospective October 25 runoff. The survey, commissioned by O Globo and TV Globo, polled 2,400 individuals nationwide with a margin of error of two percentage points.

Lula received 39%, up two points from the previous round, while Bolsonaro, representing the Liberal Party, garnered 34%, a one-point increase. Third-place candidates Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema each secured 4%, 3%, 3%, and 1% respectively. Undecided voters constituted 5%, and 10% indicated they would cast blank ballots or abstain.

In the run-off, 42% of respondents reported a tie, with Lula leading by one point from the previous week, while Bolsonaro remained unchanged. Around half of respondents disapproved of the government's performance, while 46% approved. Another poll by Nexus for the bank BTG Pactual, conducted from Friday to Sunday, reflected Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37% when candidates were listed, a two-point lead for the president and no change for the senator in the runoff.

Both polls confirmed previous trends, indicating neither candidate is near the 50% plus one valid vote requirement to secure victory in the first round. The polls were published after Lula signed Provisional Measure 1,394 on Friday, banning online sports betting, casinos, and related activities, including state-issued licenses, effective upon publication but requiring congressional ratification within 120 days.

Lula described the issue as a "public health problem," while Bolsonaro deemed it electoral, prompting industry associations to seek a Supreme Federal Court suspension. According to Quaest, 62% of Brazilians support the ban. Brazilian voters will elect the president, all 27 state governors, the entirety of the Chamber of Deputies, and two-thirds of the Senate on Sunday, October 4.