Japan veers from rice shortage to glut, dealing blow to farmers

In 2025, Japan experienced a shift from rice shortage to glut, causing significant challenges for farmers. Extreme weather, rising production costs, and lower prices for their product contributed to the sector's shrinking size. While shoppers benefited from the excess rice, farmers like Hiroshi Asano faced the prospect of losses in 2026, with many smaller-scale farmers potentially unable to survive.

The number of farmers dropped by more than half from 2.4 million in 2000 to less than a million in 2026, with over 70 percent of farming occupations now over 65 years old. Many parents are reluctant to pass on their farms to children who have chosen different career paths. The government, aiming to protect food security, had import restrictions and production guidelines.

However, the system faltered after an unusually hot summer in 2023 reduced rice yields, while demand surged due to post-pandemic restaurant patronage and a government earthquake warning. The government released 590,000 tonnes of rice, but some, including Asano, believed they released too much. The harvest that year exceeded demand due to changing eating habits and a declining population, causing rice prices to plummet to their lowest in two years.

The government has announced a plan to buy back 210,000 tonnes of rice to replenish its stockpiles, but prices are expected to keep falling. Smaller farmers struggle to process and package rice themselves, forcing them to accept lower prices from cooperatives. Consumers benefit from cheaper rice, but the government is seeking to stabilize the market, possibly through subsidies, though such a move could be politically challenging.