Iranian officials doubt US accord before November midterms

Iranian diplomats have expressed skepticism that the United States and Iran can finalize a deal to end hostilities and restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz prior to the United States' midterm elections in November, despite efforts by Qatar to negotiate indirectly in New York. This skepticism emerged following President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the waterway and resume discussions.

Both sides have indicated deep distrust and differing views on the timing and extent of concessions. Qatar's mediating role is expected to persist, with separate meetings planned between Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the US delegation. Neither country has confirmed a near-term resolution, and neither has declared a breakthrough from recent talks.

Iran's initial plan called for seven days of hostilities cessation, reopening of Hormuz and the beginning of talks on a settlement. Araghchi stated his nation conveyed the proposal to Washington via Qatar, with implementation potentially beginning once Washington agrees. Under the plan, the US would lift its naval blockade, ease restrictions on Iranian oil sales and release frozen Iranian assets.

Iran would re-open the strait and commence negotiations, including discussions about its nuclear program. Tehran has also pushed for a comprehensive ceasefire across regional conflicts. Iran set a seven-day timeline for implementation if the US accepts the proposal, beginning immediately upon acceptance. US actions under the plan could be accomplished within four to five days, allowing the strait to reopen on the sixth day and negotiations on a final agreement to commence on the seventh.

Trump initially dismissed the offer as unacceptable, but later suggested additional discussions were forthcoming. The US administration has pushed for more concrete Iranian commitments on nuclear issues and the reopening of the strait, while Iran insists that sanctions and the maritime blockade must be addressed as part of initial measures.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had previously emphasized the need for an agreement before the November elections, reflecting Iran's urgency for a swifter diplomatic resolution. However, recent confidential assessments from Iranian officials highlight pessimism about whether either party is willing to make the first concession, given months of conflict and failed attempts to stabilize the shipping route.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical economic chokepoint, with commercial traffic continuing at a fraction of normal levels due to restrictions and security concerns. Gulf producers' oil and liquefied natural gas shipments have been adversely affected, prompting higher costs and inflationary pressures. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have increased their crude exports, partially offsetting the impact.

In September, exports from major Middle Eastern producers hit a 15-month high of about 12.8 million barrels per day, though the Hormuz crisis remains a significant threat to supply stability. The United States insists that Tehran must provide verifiable assurances on its nuclear activities and maritime security before lifting major economic sanctions.

Iranian negotiators, conversely, argue that negotiations cannot progress under ongoing military and economic pressures and demand credible assurances that diplomatic engagement will not result in new attacks.