Energy security measures could offset up to 70% of Hormuz oil flows in future disruption: McKinsey

According to a report from the McKinsey Global Institute, energy security measures currently in progress or being discussed could potentially offset 35-70 percent of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz in the event of another major disruption by 2030. However, the report emphasized that these estimates are not forecasts and would depend on the actual implementation of the projects and measures under discussion.

The measures suggested include accelerating the transition to electrification, expanding alternative oil and gas supplies, constructing bypass pipelines, altering trade flows, boosting inventories, managing demand, and expanding clean energy sources.

The upper limit of this potential offset hinges on the realization of various projects that have been proposed since the 2026 crisis. The report highlighted that the current energy system has largely managed past disruptions through temporary buffers, bypass pipelines, and adjustments in global trade flows. Around 21 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of crude and refined products passed through the Strait in the fourth quarter of 2025.

While some oil continued to flow through the Strait, strategic adjustments such as inventory management, the operation of bypass pipelines, increased supply from outside the Gulf, and reduced demand helped narrow the widening supply-demand gap. Despite the resilience shown by the energy system so far, the report cautioned that existing buffers are under significant strain. The authors noted that about two-thirds of energy trade routes are maritime chokepoints, and one-third cross geopolitical boundaries.

Bypass pipelines were identified as the measure most likely to provide substantial offsets by 2030. However, these pipelines would not necessarily replace the oil from the Gulf region under normal circumstances. Instead, they would offer alternative routes and additional capacity, creating "optionality" for continued Strait flows in the event of a disruption.

For the longer term, the report stressed that a comprehensive approach encompassing multiple measures would be necessary rather than relying solely on one solution. Implementing best practices for energy efficiency could cut industrial energy costs by up to $600 billion annually.

McKinsey emphasized that energy security does not stem from eliminating dependence but from establishing multiple layers of options and diversification, including more sources, routes, buffers, and alternatives for energy supply. The report concluded that while no single approach can fully address energy security challenges, there remains considerable room for maneuvering.