El Nino Bursts Through Temperature Record Months Before Peak

The present El Nino event has already broken the highest Pacific temperature anomaly ever recorded in recent history, surpassing 3.05C above the 1991-2020 average well before the anticipated peak. The commonly employed ONI (Nino3.4) index is also on the verge of breaching the 2015 record. Forecasts indicate the event could peak at around 4.0C later in the year.

According to The Guardian: The temperature increase at the core of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean has now reached 3.05C, surpassing the 3.02C set in late November 2015, the previous high in the 150 years of modern records. This figure is measured against the average of 1991-2020. Meteorologists typically use a 30-year rolling average as a benchmark, accounting for human-induced global warming.

This metric, ONI, is on the cusp of setting a new record, just 0.01C shy of the 2015 record. Both figures are derived from data provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Forecasts predict a peak of 4.0C in November and December, based on the consensus of 14 models analyzed by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather.

This is a level unprecedented in recorded history, so extraordinary that Hausfather described it as "mind-blowing," while others have dubbed it "Godzilla-level." Any temperature increase above 0.5C is considered an El Nino; a rise above 2C is officially classified as a "very strong" El Nino, also known as a "super" El Nino. The current El Nino is poised to be the largest in at least 1,000 years, injecting unprecedented heat into an atmosphere already experiencing rapid warming due to human-caused global heating.

This dual threat means 2027 is expected to shatter previous records and become the hottest year ever recorded.