El bono de EEUU a 30 años alcanza máximos desde 2002

The United States debt bond has reached record highs since 2002, increasing its 30-year yield to a peak of 5.60% in recent days. The U.S. debt has been pressured due to fears of a more restrictive Federal Reserve and investors selling long-term bonds consecutively, pushing yields to a 30-year high of 5.60%. This is the highest level since June 2002, over 24 years ago.

The yield on this bond has increased by more than 76 basis points this year, from 4.84% at the start of 2023 to the current 5.60%. The increase in yield has been fueled by the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly the attacks between the U.S. and Iran, which has caused oil prices to rise to $103 per barrel, raising concerns of further inflation.

The persistence of inflation could lead to a more restrictive move by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has raised interest rates for the first time in three years this month. According to Schroders, the current increase in the yield of U.S. long-term debt is not only due to the sovereign credit risk (the U.S. has one of the worst public debt trajectories among major economies, according to the firm) but also because of excessive demand that the economy cannot absorb.

The net result is inflation above the target. Without fiscal discipline, a more restrictive monetary policy should act as a balancing factor, says the firm. Some analysts believe that the increase in Japanese bond yields is exacerbating the selling of U.S. bonds, as Japanese investors are the largest foreign holders of American debt.

A reduction in Japanese purchases would be significant given the large financing needs of the U.S. In this context, Japanese bond sales on a 40-year term reached the highest demand since 2020, with an offer equivalent to 3.1 times the amount offered, the highest coverage ratio in six years, according to Bloomberg.