Axsome Therapeutics options flow shows heavy put skew ahead of binary catalyst

Options activity on Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) reveals a strong bearish sentiment approaching a binary catalyst. An overwhelming majority of today's volume is in put options, with 92.7% of the trading activity concentrated on the put side (1,922 puts compared to 151 calls). This notable skew is not merely routine hedging, but rather represents new money entering the market, as evidenced by the $170 put open interest increasing from just 1 contract to 1,200 contracts in a recent trading session.

The dominant strategy appears to be a 1,200 × 600 ratio put spread expiring on October 16, 2026. At the time of the observed trading flow, AXSM's stock price was near $185.98, currently trading at $183.69, which represents a decline of 5.26% since 2:15 PM EDT. This 1,200 × 600 ratio indicates that the market participants are taking a near-term bearish position, expecting the stock to fall below the $170 level by the time of the expiry date, which is roughly 7.4% below the current stock price.