As the US pulls its forces out of Iraq, what happens to Iran-backed armed groups?

As the United States withdraws its forces from Iraq, a significant question arises: what will become of the Iran-backed armed groups that have wielded considerable power within the nation? The Iraqi government has hailed the US departure as a return to national sovereignty, but the reality may be more complex. The withdrawal is set to coincide with a deadline for these armed groups to disarm and integrate, originally due by September 30, but subsequently extended to June 30, 2027.

However, some of the most powerful groups, tied to Iran ideologically and financially, have already signaled their unwillingness to comply. These groups, including Kataeb Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, argue that they have no reason to disarm or integrate, seeing their role as fighting for Iran's interests in the region. The Iraqi state, while nominally in control, faces challenges in fully disarming and integrating these groups, many of which maintain deep ties with the political establishment, military, and organized crime.

Despite the Iraqi government's assurances, there is skepticism about their ability to effectively rein in the militias, with some attributing their power to the US's past failures in establishing robust institutions in Iraq. The situation remains tense, with the potential for clashes between the militias and security forces, and the possibility of a future US re-entry into Iraq, as it has in the past.

The armed groups and their supporters have welcomed the US withdrawal, with some calling for a commemoration of the martyrs who died in the fight against IS. However, the US's ongoing military and political involvement in Iran, coupled with its pressure on Iraq to curb Iran-linked forces, adds another layer of complexity to the already volatile situation.