Veritá Poll of 40,500 Voters Puts Flávio Bolsonaro Ahead of Lula Eight Days Before Brazil Votes
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026, 28 SEPTEMBER 2026 Key Facts —The country — Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy with about 210 million people, votes for a president on Sunday 4 October, with a runoff on 25 October if nobody wins outright. —The background — President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term. Senator Flávio […] The post Veritá Poll of 40,500 Voters Puts Flávio Bolsonaro Ahead of…
On 26 September 2026, the Brazilian polling institute Veritá released its massive national survey, fielding 40,500 voters over ten days between 10 and 19 September. This is by far the largest sample size of any poll during the 2026 race, and roughly twenty times larger than the standard national survey. The results showed Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round with 45.53 percent compared to Lula's 41.76 percent – a numerical lead of 3.77 points that equates to roughly three million votes.
No other polling house currently shows a first-round lead for Flávio Bolsonaro. While other institutes released their own survey results in the days leading up to Veritá's, they all indicated Lula leading or being in a dead heat with Bolsonaro. The Veritá poll is considered an outlier due to its unprecedented size, but its findings are significant as they move the conversation in the race even among analysts who are skeptical of its methodology.
The Veritá poll tracker shows the race as a band rather than a single number, with the pro-Flávio edge defined by Veritá and the pro-Lula edge defined by other institutes. The poll's trend line shows support for Flávio Bolsonaro strengthening in the final weeks of campaigning.
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