UK voters believe Burnham can win the next election

Liverpool, England — A new POLITICO Poll, released at the Labour Party's annual conference in Liverpool, reveals that the majority of voters now believe the Labour Party, led by Andy Burnham, has a realistic chance of winning the next election. This is a significant increase from when Keir Starmer was prime minister, with 53% of voters now seeing Labour as a contender, up from 33% in May.

The poll, conducted by Public First, gauges the public's expectations of who they believe will win the next election, uncovering the impact Burnham's leadership is having on British politics. The transformation in Labour's electoral credibility suggests that the party's MPs' decision to remove Starmer from the position has paid off so far.

The "Burnham bounce" has been noticed by voters, according to Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has seen a decline in its chances of winning, with its support falling from 65% to 47% since April. The Conservatives remain in a difficult position, with fewer voters believing they have a realistic shot at power than those who think they can win.

The next general election does not need to take place before 2029, but some of Burnham's aides are pushing for an early election as soon as spring. However, Burnham has explicitly ruled out an early election. When asked about whether Burnham should call an election to gain legitimacy for his government, 50% of respondents think he should, while just over 1/3 believe he doesn't need to.

If an election were to be triggered, 37% think Labour would win a close vote, while 21% expect Labour to lose. The cost of living crisis remains the top priority for voters, cited by 59% of respondents. However, only 20% of voters believe Burnham's government will make real improvements to the cost of daily life, while 35% think he wants to help but won't succeed.

Another 32% said Burnham is not really focused on the problem. Next month's budget is seen as a key risk, with 44% of respondents expecting to be worse off after Chancellor John Healey's statement, with only 18% thinking he will ease the pressure on their finances. Despite these concerns, Burnham's personal approval rating remains higher than other party leaders, with a net positive score of +16.