Trump and GOP See Reversal With Latinos in 2 Strongholds Ahead of Midterms
Hispanic voters in South Texas and South Florida are showing signs of moving away from President Donald Trump.
As the midterm elections approach, a shift in Latino voting patterns is emerging in two crucial swing states: Texas and Florida. South Texas and South Florida, which were instrumental in Donald Trump's 2024 victory among Hispanic voters, are now showing signs of moving away from the Republican Party. Republican-held House seats in these regions are becoming more competitive, and the Texas U.S. Senate race has tightened.
The Cook Political Report, a trusted source for nonpartisan race ratings, has shifted three Florida House races and three Texas House races towards Democrats. Notably, Texas' 9th Congressional District, a solidly Republican stronghold, has been reclassified as likely to flip Democratic. Despite this, political strategists who track Latino voters attribute the change to a common set of concerns. A recent survey of Hispanic likely voters in Texas found President Trump's job approval rating at 33%, down from 43% in 2024.
In the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, Texas state Representative James Talarico is leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by a wide margin of 63% to 30% among Hispanic voters. Among self-described independents, Talarico also leads by a substantial 73% to 30%. In the gubernatorial race, Democratic Representative Gina Hinojosa holds an even larger lead over Republican Governor Greg Abbott, with 63% to 33% of Hispanic support.
The shift appears to stem from Trump voters. Eighteen percent of Texas Hispanics who backed Trump in 2024 now disapprove of his performance, while 19% support Talarico over Paxton, and 22% do not back a Republican in a generic House matchup. Mike Madrid, a prominent Republican strategist, attributes the change to a broader misunderstanding of Latino voting patterns. He states, "People, I think, broadly are failing to understand that the Latino vote is the largest swing vote in America."
Immigration enforcement is also weighing heavily on Latino voters. Nearly two-thirds of respondents in the survey said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Trump's deportation policies, and 61% view Immigration and Customs Enforcement unfavorably. Despite this, Talarico remains ahead in every recent poll of the race, with Democratic nominee Ken Paxton trailing by double digits.
The pressure on Republican candidates is evident in South Texas, where Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer with two Latin Grammy Awards and broad name recognition, is challenging Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz. A Texas Southern University poll shows Pulido leading 50% to 45%. In the 28th District, Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar faces Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat who won the GOP primary decisively. Trump won the district by 10 points in 2024, and the race is rated Lean Democratic by Cook.
In South Florida, the GOP's efforts to court Hispanic voters have backfired. While Joe Biden carried Miami-Dade County by just 7 points in 2016, Trump secured a 29-point victory in 2024. However, the shift appears to be fading as Cuban and Venezuelan American voters, who have traditionally supported the GOP, now feel alienated. In Florida's 27th District, Republican Representative Maria Elvira Salazar's lead has narrowed to within the margin of error.
Written by urgent.news from Newsweek's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
